The quiet slumber of the Subra al-Kheima neighborhood would soon come to life, a short distance from the banks of the Nile River. On August 20, 2015, a motorbike followed the car bomb towards its target, just north of downtown Cairo inside the Ring Road. The driver of the car bomb pulled the vehicle in front of the State Security Building and exited quickly. Jumping onto the back of the motorbike the two terrorists sped away. Within moments the neighborhood was jolted awake when the car bomb detonated destroying buildings and injuring 11 police officers and soldiers. This attack was clearly the work of terrorists from the ISIS affiliate Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis/Wilayat Sinai. A claim of responsibility followed from the Islamic State Egypt, announcing that this attack was carried out in retribution for the execution of six men convicted of killing a number of military in a raid in Sharkas.

In November 2014,  Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis pledged bayat (loyalty) to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Soon after Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi released an audio tape announcing several new provinces of ISIS’ Caliphate to include the Sinai. Leaders of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis had previously pledged bayat (loyalty) to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi seeking to join ISIS and would now be known as the Wilayat Sinai (Sinai Province).  ISIS gets the propaganda of extending its reach into Egypt while Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) gets resources and foreign fighters.

The group has conducted numerous attacks on buses to include a complex attack in Eilat, Israel in 2011. ABM terrorists have conducted numerous attacks on police and military buses as well as a suicide bombing on a bus carrying Korean tourists. The main efforts of these terrorists have been to attack elements of the Egyptian government to include numerous assassination plots on government officials. They have also attacked an Egyptian helicopter and a navy ship. We will continue to see these types of attacks being conducted by this terrorist group.

On August 6, 2014, ABM terrorists killed William Henderson, the District Manager of the Karama Field in the Western Desert. The terrorists twitted “we claim responsibility for the killing of American oil expert in the Western Desert.” They attached photos of Henderson’s passport and his Apache company identification cards. While the limited media that reported on this stated it was an attempted carjacking this shows that ABM/Sinai Province is expanding its reach in Egypt. Often thought of as that “terrorists group in the Sinai” we have seen numerous terrorist attacks outside its stronghold of the Sinai to include attacks in Cairo, southern and western Egypt.

On July 22, 2015, a group of armed ABM/Sinai Province terrorists stopped the vehicle driving Tomislav Salopek, a Croatian surveyor, 22 km southwest of Cairo. Salopek was working for the French company CGG and was being driven to work. The terrorists stopped the vehicle and threw the Egyptian driver out and drove off with their target. In true ISIS form on August 5^th the terrorists released a video entitled “A Message to the Egyptian Government.” The video showed Tomislav Salopek, in a jump suit with the black flag of ISIS over one shoulder and an ISIS terrorist armed with a knife out in the desert. Salopek was made to read a statement in which he stated:

“The soldiers of the Islamic State Wilayat Sinai catch me on Wednesday 22 July 2015. They want to substitute (exchange) me with the Muslim women arrested in the Egyptian prisons. This matter has to be achieved before 48 hours from now. If not the soldiers of Wilayat Sinai will kill me.”

On the morning of August 12, 2015, ISIS released photos showing the beheaded body of   Salopek. Salopek left behind a wife and two children.

ISIS is a global problem and Egypt and the region are feeling the pain associated with the activities of this terrorist group. No one is immune. After the much publicized beheadings of 20 Egyptian workers on February 15, 2015, thousands of Egyptians working in Libya returned home. Most of these men went to Libya for jobs and sent monies back home. Westerners working in Egypt will likely do the same thing if this situation isn’t remedied quickly. In Cairo this week, it was announced that all businesses seeking to obtain commercial licenses would be required to install security surveillance cameras before being granted a license. This will assist in identifying not only an attack like the attack on the National Security building but possibly the casing and surveillance of targets.  But Egypt will have to do more to stem the growth of this terrorist epidemic.

Just this last week ABM terrorists stopped a bus traveling from Rafah to al-Arish and seized four HAMAS members.  The four Palestinians, Abdul-Dayem Abdul-Baset Abdul-Dayem, Abdullah Said Abu Jbein, Yasser Fathi Zannoun and Hussein Khamis ath-Thabda are all being held to pressure HAMAS in Gaza to release 50 Salafists being held by HAMAS. HAMAS has  recently cracked down on Salafists and ISIS supporters in Gaza. ABM has issued a demand and are threatening to kill the four HAMAS members if their demands are not met.

Egypt has numerous problems besides terrorism. High unemployment, lack of housing, congrestion and a stagnant economy are but a few. Tourism, fees from the Suez Canal and oil/natural gas are all huge contributors to the Egyptian economy. But terrorism threatens all three segments. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi wants to build a “new shining city of Cairo” to solve the congestion of Cairo and bring in economic investment. But before anyone will want to invest or tour Egypt, or work there, the terrorists of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis/Wilayat Sinai must be dealt with. While ABM terrorists have aligned themselves with ISIS, the terrorists in the Sinai and Cairo  are Egyptians. Until Egypt deals with this problem there can be no shining new Cairo on any hill. The longer the problem festers the larger it will become.

                War means fighting; to fight is the duty of a soldier; march swiftly,
strike the foe with all your strength and take away from him everything
you can. Injure him in every  possible way, and do it quickly….

                                                      -General Thomas “Stonewall” Jackson-

There are always different leadership styles in dealing with an enemy.  Some leaders are very cautious like General George McClellan.  Abraham Lincoln often prodded his General to attack and Lincoln’s patience was stretched beyond repair.  On the Confederate side were two generals-Lee and Jackson, who needed no prodding to attack.

Stonewall Jackson once stated:

“Always mystify, mislead and surprise the enemy, if possible; and when you strike and overcome him, never let up in the pursuit so long as your men have strength to follow; for an army routed, if hotly pursued, becomes panic-stricken, and can then be destroyed by half their number.”

The Union had decisive commanders like Grant, Sherman and Sheridan. General U.S. Grant stated “Find out where your enemy is. Get at him as soon as you can. Strike him hard as you can,  and keep moving on.”

After December 2001, the United States knew where it could find the bulk of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban-in Pakistan. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) for years has threatened to attack aviation here in the United States and we knew where to find them-Yemen. ISIS kidnapped and beheaded a number of Americans and announced the establishment of a Caliphate as they moved from Raqqa, Syria across Iraq. When the black banners of ISIS moved with lighting sped across Iraq they instilled fear in the population brutally murdering members of the civilian population.These terrorists do not fear U.S airpower or leadership and think they can weather the storm. I once heard a European diplomat remark that “Reagan was a crazy cowboy and who knew what he might be capable of doing or whom he might attack.”

In the ever changing war against terrorism- leadership is needed both in the political realm and the military.  Leadership in one or the other does not work by itself. To defeat terrorism we need both political and military leadership working as one. In 1997, Major H.R. McMasters wrote, Dereliction of Duty, a harsh criticism of the Joint Chiefs of Staff for not standing up to and speaking bluntly to President Lyndon Johnson about the failed military and political strategy in Viet Nam. General  McMasters today is known as a brilliant military commander, a scholar, and one who isn’t afraid to speak the blunt truth. But I also know many Colonels who were just as brilliant but were forced out or sidelined because they “ran their mouth” or didn’t go along with the bureacracy.

There are numerous examples of political negligence where intelligence officers provide the ability to kill a high value terrorist target but the operation was not undertaken for some political reason or another. Imagine if either Jackson or Grant were waging the war on terror.  Both were simple and straight forward in their approach to dealing with the enemy but they were two sides of the same coin.

In December 2001, the opportunity presented itself it kill or capture Osama Bin Laden since he was holed up in the White Mountains. The Special Forces and CIA officers in the field had Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden cornered in Tora Bora. The CIA Commander had requested 800 U.S. Army Rangers to block the escape route into Pakistan since he was sure that the Pakistan military wouldn’t hinder  Al Qaeda’s escape. With the Taliban defeated and Al-Qaeda on the run Bin Laden had gone to the one place he felt safe – Tora Bora. But over days Al-Qaeda had been bombed around the clock and Bin Laden was preparing his escape from the mountains into Pakistan. In Gary Berntsen book, Jawbreaker: The Attack on Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda A Personal Account by the CIA’s Key Field Commander, he stated  “Our advantage was quickly slipping away.”

“We needed U.S. soldiers on the ground! We need them to do the fighting! We need them to block a possible al-Qaeda escape into Pakistan.” Knowing the enemy and being able to anticipate what he might do are critical skills. But just as important is having political and miltary leaders who are decisive and understand what is required to defeat this enemy.

In August 1998, Al-Qaeda terrorists simultaneously attacked the U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. In response the United States fired cruise missiles into a number of Al-Qaeda terrorist training camps in Afghanistan. The US demanded that the Taliban turn over Osama Bin Laden but they refused to hand over the leader of Al-Qaeda. Osama Bin Laden pledged his loyalty to Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban. The Taliban under Mullah Omar provided sanctuary in Afghanistan for Al-Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden.

After the September 11th attacks, Abdul Salam Zaeef, the Taliban’s Ambassador to Pakistan stated that the Taliban would not hand over Bin Laden to the United States. With the defeat of Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters in 2001 by the US military and the Northern Alliance fighters, both Al-Qaeda and the Taliban fled to Pakistan. Instead of closing their escape avenues into Pakistan many of the enemy fighters escaped to fight another day. Pakistan became the new sanctuary for this alliance of terror.

It should surprise no one that Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current leader of Al-Qaeda has pledged bayat (Oath of Loyalty) to Mullah Akhtar Mansour, the new leader of the Taliban. In an audio message, Zawahiri stated that “As emir of Al-Qaeda, I pledge to you our allegiance, following the path of Sheikh Bin Laden and his martyred brothers in their allegiance to Mullah Omar.

The significance of Zawahiri’s pledge of allegiance is two-fold. With the recent announced death of Mullah Omar there are elements within the Taliban that are at odds with Mullah Mansour being the new leader. Also, ISIS has been seeking to recruit Taliban fighters and establish a presence in Afghanistan. Mullah Mansour can claim legitimacy with the Al-Qaeda leader’s allegiance and support. Mullah Mansour wil be able to say he was Mullah Omar’s deputy and has the support of Al-Qaeda and the Haqqani Network, the two most powerful terrorist groups in Pakistan. The alliance between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda seems to still be in place and strong as ever.

Over the last twenty years one of the biggest challenges for the United States was to know and understand the enemy seeking to attack us. The purpose of this blog is to highlight some of those challenges and provide insight and ideas to help those seeking a better understanding and knowledge in positioning the United States to be better able to deal with the continued challenges we face. The terrorists we face today have learned lessons over the last twenty years and are an ever changing enemy.

Twenty years ago few in the United States paid little attention to Al Qaeda. When political leaders were briefed on Al Qaeda back then one had to wonder whether it was sheer negligence or ignorance that guided decisions and often a lack of decisions. We still see some of the same challenges today. Today terrorist groups like ISIS,  Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab,the Taliban, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Ansar al Sharia Brigade, and Jabhat al Nusrah all pose different threats to the United States, our citizens and our way of life.

The Chinese General Sun Tzu in The Art of War stated:

“if you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

While many are familiar with Sun Tzu’s quote I am always surprised how little government, military, law enforcement and intelligence officers know of the enemy-from what terrorists have said, what terrorists have written  and the ideology that motivates them. I have also seen others who have a detailed knowledge that is nothing less than impressive.We must gain this knowledge and understanding sooner than later.  If one was to combine the understanding that Sun Tzu preached about with the decisiveness of General Ulysses S. Grant our enemies would be scattered like the wind. General Grant stated:

“The art of war is simple enough. Find out where your enemy is. Get at him as soon as you can. Strike him hard as you can, and keep moving on.”

While some have criticized the number of stings the FBI have conducted on terrorists here in the United States, I believe this is exactly what Grant advised.

In March 2003, as Marines of the 1^st Division waited for the order to cross the Line of Departure to attack Saddam Hussein’s forces in Iraq, General Mattis issued a message to all hands. Two important concepts were part of the message General Mattis felt was important to communicate to all his Marines.

“You are part of the world’s most feared and trusted force. Engage your brain before you engage your weapon.”

General Mattis showed the importance of using one’s brain to defeat the enemy even before using a weapon. General Mattis was an aggressive Marine General on the order of Chesty Puller. But Mattis was also one of the most well-read Marine Commanders always seeking to gain an understanding of the enemy in order to be able to soundly defeat him. I know of another great leader who passed out reading materials for his guys as they flew to Afghanistan after September 11th. Great leaders are always looking for an advantage and knowing and understanding the enemy is the first step for success.